Albanese won big, Peter Dutton lost his seat, and the Liberal Party elected its first female leader, Sussan Ley. Meanwhile, anti-trans politics flopped, and fringe religious parties were trounced. Craig Young asks what this means for Australia and its favourite neighbour?
In just a few short weeks, the Australian political landscape has undergone a significant transformation.
The Australian Labor Party (ALP) has claimed a decisive victory in the House of Representatives, expected to secure 93–94 seats. In contrast, the Liberal-National Coalition trails with just 44 seats. The situation isn’t much better for the Coalition in the Senate, where the ALP, alongside the Greens, has a pathway to enact progressive reforms.
A notable shift saw former National Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price defect to the Liberal Party, sparking a failed leadership challenge from Queensland National Senator David Canavan.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has conducted a Cabinet reshuffle—an exercise in managing the ALP’s complex factional arrangements. A historic moment also arrived for the Liberal Party, which for the first time has elected a female leader, Sussan Ley, who previously served as deputy to outgoing leader Peter Dutton. Ley is positioned as a “moderate”, having backed marriage equality. However, her leadership raises questions: will she break from Dutton’s failed strategy of transphobic rhetoric, and can she silence similar inflammatory remarks from others in her caucus?
Ley’s leadership contest victory over Angus Taylor—aligned with the party’s Hard Right and known more for fiscal conservatism—highlights internal tensions within the Liberals.
Among the key reactions, Rodney Croome of Just Equal noted that Dutton’s anti-transgender posturing not only failed but likely contributed to his loss in the Dickson electorate to Labor. The advocacy group expressed hope that the Albanese government will now prioritise LGBTQIA+ issues, such as eliminating discrimination in religious schools and appointing a dedicated LGBTQI+ Human Rights Commissioner.
On the political fringe, the Australian Christian Lobby attempted to put a positive spin on the outcome by pointing out that only one Green MP was elected to the House of Representatives. However, they ignored the ongoing influence of the eleven Greens Senators, who retain significant power in shaping legislation. The Christian Right, somewhat paradoxically, has blamed Dutton’s defeat on him not being “conservative enough”—despite his overtures to them through anti-trans policies.
Fundamentalist micro-parties, such as the South Australian “Australian Christians” and the eastern states’ “Family First Party,” failed to gain traction, each securing less than two per cent of the vote and no seats. In fact, the Australian Christians were even surpassed in voter share by the Legalise Cannabis Party. Similarly, other right-wing minor parties fared poorly: Clive Palmer’s Trumpet for Patriots Party won no seats, while One Nation and the Australian Party only managed a single seat each, both in Queensland.
The broader message from this election is clear: female, youth and urban voters played a decisive role in Labor’s landslide. The Liberals, led by a socially conservative leader, suffered their worst result to date. Dutton’s strategy of anti-trans dog-whistling failed to resonate.
This outcome holds lessons beyond Australia. With growing parallels in Canada and potential ones in New Zealand, there is reason to consider whether fear-based political tactics, particularly around gender identity, are becoming obsolete. As New Zealand approaches its next election in around sixteen months, questions arise: will the National Party’s stance on pay equity deepen a gender divide? And will the failure of transphobic politics abroad push Chris Luxon to distance himself from Winston Peters’ similar rhetoric?
One can only hope.
