Reform UK is on the cusp of a political breakthrough. A major YouGov poll released this week indicates that if a general election were held today, the right-wing populist party—led by Nigel Farage—would win the most seats in Westminster, marking a seismic shift in British politics.
The Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll of 11,500 people suggests Reform UK would claim 271 seats, far surpassing Labour’s projected 178 and reducing the once-dominant Conservatives to a distant 46. If these figures held in an actual election, Farage’s Reform party would be poised to lead a hung parliament as the UK’s largest political force.
But for the UK’s LGBTQ+ communities, this rise raises serious concerns about what a Reform-led government could mean for their rights and freedoms.
An Explicitly Anti-Trans Platform
In Reform UK’s policy document, “Our Contract with You”, the party brands gender inclusion efforts as “transgender indoctrination” and pledges to remove all gender-affirming practices from schools. That includes banning pronoun changes, social transitioning, and any gender-questioning support without parental consent for under-16s. The party also commits to enforcing single-sex facilities in schools and public buildings.
The anti-trans rhetoric doesn’t stop there. Reform aims to remove “baseless transgender ideology” and “divisive Critical Race Theory” from digital platforms, arguing that social media companies pushing these ideas should not play a role in regulating free speech.
Additionally, the party wants to overhaul the Equality Act 2010 and abolish all Diversity, Equality and Inclusion (DE&I) roles in public services, including police forces. It claims these roles “lower standards” and stifle productivity.
Local Power, Visible Backlash
Reform UK’s cultural agenda is already manifesting at the local level. The 10 English councils now controlled by the party have banned the flying of Pride flags, limiting flagpoles to the Union Jack and regional emblems. “No other flags will be permitted,” said then-chairman Zia Yusuf. A party spokesperson added: “We are proud of our country and history. Unlike Labour, we won’t pander.”
Earlier this year, a Reform member was caught on camera calling a Pride flag on a police car a “f**king degenerate flag,” in a rant that went viral for its open hostility toward LGBTQ+ visibility.
Nigel Farage: A Mixed Legacy on LGBTQ+ Issues
Farage has long walked a fine line on LGBTQ+ issues. During his UKIP leadership, he refused to discipline members who called homosexuality “disgusting,” and opposed same-sex marriage while the UK remained under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights.
Though he now claims to support trans rights “in principle,” Farage also insists on the protection of women-only spaces—a stance that aligns closely with his party’s hardline anti-trans platform.
In a telling move, he once praised Margaret Thatcher’s time in office as a period of “real advancement for gay people,” despite her government’s implementation of Section 28—a law that banned the “promotion” of homosexuality in schools.
What Do Reform Voters Believe?
According to polling data:
- 69% of Reform supporters believe trans people should not be allowed to legally change their gender through a Gender Recognition Certificate.
- However, 65% support same-sex marriage in the UK, suggesting that while Reform is deeply anti-trans, its base is less hostile to gay and lesbian rights.
A Turning Point for the UK’s LGBTQ+ Future
The implications of Reform UK’s potential electoral victory are profound. While same-sex marriage may remain untouched, the party’s aggressive stance against trans rights, DE&I initiatives, and LGBTQ+ visibility poses a serious threat to equality.
Whether Reform’s surge is a temporary protest vote or a durable political realignment, the next election will likely be a referendum not just on immigration or Brexit, but on the kind of country Britain wants to be.
