More than half of the United States could see marriage equality vanish if the Supreme Court overturns Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that made same-sex marriage a constitutional right.
According to the Movement Advancement Project, 31 states still have laws or constitutional amendments banning marriage between same-sex couples. These bans remain unenforceable under Obergefell but would return if the ruling were reversed.
That would leave over 60% of Americans without marriage equality at the state level.
Federal vs State Protections
Even if Obergefell is overturned, same-sex marriages will still be recognised at the federal level under the Respect for Marriage Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. The Act also requires states to recognize marriages performed elsewhere — but it does not force them to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples within their own borders.
Iowa is the only exception among states with bans on the books: its state Supreme Court struck down the prohibition. To change that, Iowa’s high court would have to revisit the case.
Legal Push and Judicial Signals
While the Supreme Court has not moved to reconsider marriage equality, nine states have recently introduced nonbinding resolutions urging the court to revisit Obergefell.
In 2022, when the Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Justice Clarence Thomas suggested in a concurring opinion that the Court should also reconsider rulings on contraception, sodomy, and marriage equality — calling them “demonstrably erroneous.”
States with Bans Still on the Books
Of the 31 states where bans remain, 24 enshrined them in state constitutions, meaning reversal would require a referendum vote.
Some examples include:
- Alabama: Amendment 774 (2006 referendum) plus earlier laws and executive orders
- Florida: Amendment 2 (2008 referendum) and a 1977 statute
- Texas: Proposition 2 (2005 referendum) and a 1973 law
- Oregon: Measure 36 (2004 referendum)
- North Carolina: Amendment 1 (2012 referendum) and 1995 law HB 270
- Virginia: Marshall-Newman Amendment (2006 referendum)
Other states, including Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming, rely on statutes that predate Obergefell.
(See full list: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.)
What’s at Stake
Without Obergefell, marriage rights would once again be a patchwork across the country. Couples in affected states would be forced to marry elsewhere and rely on federal recognition — a precarious return to pre-2015 inequalities.
