Craig Young asks if bad vice-presidential choices adversely affect US presidential campaigns. And is J.D. Vance a bad choice?
Given that there were a large number of badly chosen nineteenth-century picks for the vice-presidential portfolio, I’ll restrict my summary to those within the last fifty years!
Spiro Agnew, Richard Nixon’s vice presidential choice, was brought before the courts for financial misdealings during his pre-federal term as Republican Governor of Maryland, although Nixon’s eventual Watergate criminality overshadowed his hapless vice president.
George H. Bush chose Dan Quayle, who didn’t have a particularly brilliant academic record and made constant verbal gaffes on the campaign trail, which culminated when he misspelt potato in front of a primary school student.
By contrast, George W. Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney, was highly intelligent. Unfortunately, he used that intellect to railroad the United States into a prolonged military quagmire in Iraq that lasted a decade on the basis of non-existent weapons of mass destruction, curtailed US civil liberties, and presided over the abuse and torture of enemy combatants.
Sarah Palin was John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate. Unfortunately for McCain, the former Republican Alaskan Governor carried baggage from ethics violation hearings during the latter phase of her time in office. Given she was a social conservative, more moderate Republicans worried that she didn’t have the intellectual fortitude to stand for office. McCain’s office restricted access to her and was no match for Obama’s vice presidential nominee, Joe Biden, in public debate. Since the McCain/Palin ticket defeat, she has served as a right-wing Republican activist.
And so, to J.D. Vance. Vance is forty years old, an Iraq War US Marine Corps veteran and outgoing Ohio Republican Senator. He’s a conservative Catholic and hardcore social conservative, wanting to ban abortion, even in cases of rape or incest! He opposes marriage equality and gun control and also wants to ban necessary medical treatment for trans children and adolescents.
In terms of his personal life, Vance wrote in his biography Hillbilly Elegy that his mother struggled with drug addiction and that he was primarily brought by his grandparents. He has undoubtedly made good on his dysfunctional childhood and should be credited for that.
Vance moved to Ohio and created an NGO, Ohio Renewal, which closed after two years with few achievements. It seems to have spent more money on management expenses than dealing with fentanyl/prescription opioid problems in Ohio. He also has connections to right-wing NGO the American Enterprise Institute and right-wing Canadian media platform Rumble.
In 2023, he became a Republican Ohio Senator and his legislative record is mixed. He’s collaborated with Democrat Senators to prevent corporate executive overpayments in cases of corporate failure and lowering the price of insulin for those with diabetes. On the negative side, he also collaborated with the infamous conspiracy theorist and right-wing extremist Georgia Republican Senator Marjorie Taylor-Greene when she tried to attack federal funding for appropriate healthcare for trans adolescents. Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump’s two elder sons are said to have lobbied for his inclusion on the Republican ticket.
My assessment is that while Vance is a useful intellectual foil to Trump, he might flounder on the Ohio Renewal funding question and the absence of serious intervention against opioid abuse, which is a serious social problem in rural America. Moreover, in that context, he developed ties to Purdue Pharma, which is an odd strategic relationship to have when dealing with prescription drug abuse.
His previous extremist stances on abortion are going to be a liability, especially given the prominence of Kamala Harris’ strong backing of abortion rights. It might exacerbate problems that Republicans have with female voters.
However, overall, Vance has the background to survive any debacle arising from his current association with Trump. With enough time to put Ohio Renewal and Trump affiliations behind him, he might reinvent himself and become the next Republican presidential candidate in 2028. Whether or not he could win against a Kamala Harris presidency is a moot point.
